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is not really on this blog, but the topic concerns me a long time and the lack of logic (the study of the rational (final) reasoning) of many contemporaries is shocking. One can perhaps so see that personal development also heard that you recognize fraud, mastered his own greed and can not come at the expense of reason out of control. must also be a thinking person able to overcome his own ignorance and that of the mass and to provide in-depth questions to the truth - not bring about a desired, but a erstrittenen by logic - to come as close as possible. It is important to learn the primitive and limited thought out and unbiased and objective research with the help of reason, independently of authority and the mass of protesters, according to the solution of every problem.
The situation is the following: Countless cheap web sites and YouTube videos praising the very simple, safe and legal way to make money on the internet. To this end they propose a system where you play in online casinos roulette and sets a chip (for example, $ 1) on a color. If you lose one, doubling his bet. You lose again you double again.
The idea:
one wins in the first round I won a $ 1
you win in the second round has also won a $ 1, because the first one loses his bet, so a dollar. In the second set to twice that is 2 $. You win twice so $ 4. The use of war 1 +2 U.S. dollars $, a $ 3 dollar profit use and 4, making $ 1 net profit.
The same applies if you win in later rounds, if, for example 5 times is the wrong color and then the right one:
used: 1 $ +2 $ +4 $ +8 $ +16 $ +32 $ = 63
$ ,
use in the last round: 32 $, a $ 64
profit
->; Net profit: $ 1
Sounds logical. Why it does not work in practice, we shall see below.
The system is called the way Martingale (
Martingale ) and is as old as roulette itself (even older). These petty cheaters have not even come up (heat but no great power).
But first we try to identify with pure logic, why have the system must be a catch.
Socrates solved these problems with just one question: CUI BONO benefit-Who?
This is exactly the right approach. We can ask specific questions in our case, the same architecture.
- exist why these casinos when they can be ripped off so easily?
- why change anything because the casinos operate, that such system?
- Why should the system will tell if it really works?
- Why not someone programmed a bot of such a primitive game played by millions and does it? What could
- these people like this have to release a faulty system and even to pay for advertising to make attention?
The logical conclusion is simple and all questions have the same result. The "system" can not work. Without having mathematics and game theory of random spark or idea, you MUST have come to the right result.
If you really want to deal with it, we can all prove it mathematically. The only thing you can not do is prove that it works, because that would contradict not only the logic but also in mathematics. Maybe in one or the other, like probably many, nevertheless give the impression that "it must" work. ignore or let us call it intuition must be better in view of the result above and the well-known weakness of the human mind to be deceived, - About this flawed logic. If that's not enough to serve the following mathematical statement:
First you have to make clear that at no Roulette 50% / 50% chance of red and black version, but only 48.6% / 48.6%, because there are 37 figures, including a zero (French roulette, two in the U.S.), so 36 colors, 18 red / 18 black - a chance for Red = (18/37) = 48.6%, same for black.
The bank wins so ever to ~ 51.4% by each operation.
The house advantage is taken on by 51.4% -48.6% = ~ 2.8%
Each individual bet wins, the bank approximately 2.8% of use, whether or not martingales, which is always true.
now referred a bill to Martingale, I help myself to the example statement from Wikipedia:
assumptions:
- Zéro mean loss
- The launch used a "piece", amounted to 10 €, after losing one after 20, 40, € 80, etc. set.
- The procedure defined by the casino maximum amounts to just € 20,480, so that the Martingale is truncated to 12 games. (Anm.dV In general, the table limit is already at 12,000 € for a 10 min € use. / At online casinos is already at 1000 €)
The probability of losing a single game, 19/37 = 51%. The probability of losing
12 games in a row:
(19/37) ^ 12 = 0.0336% (ie about 1: 2974)
Correspondingly, the probability of ending a Martingale with profit:
1 - ( 19/37) ^ 12 = 99.9664%.
But: In the case of the happy conclusion of the player now only 10 €, while he loses in the event of a loss of € 40,950 (ie 10 + 20 + 40 +...+ 20 480 = 40 950).
Now one win so to 99.9664% 10 0.0336% € and you lose € 40,950.
expected value (99.9664% * 10) - (0.0336% * € 40,950) = 9.99664 - 13.7592 = € -3,763 applies (per series)
This value for the entire series of 12 games. We divide it by 12 and then get: € -0313, representing 2.8% of our home advantage (Mathematically, the step is not exactly the same). The casino then win every bet of 10 €; 31cent or 28cent if we are mathematically accurate.
following must be observed.
- First, the table limit is lower in reality. So before you come to the border, can not increase more and lose everything.
- The capital is lower in reality. Using the example of our cheaters should we deposit 50 $ -100 $ and play $ 1. So you can double up to 5 times (6 set times). Man loses after an average of 54 games. At that time, you earn a maximum of 54 $, you should always win the first time. You may have lost his entire capital.
- Even if it looks like we can win as is to stop early enough, this is a fallacy. Even the first game can be six times the wrong color / number. The negative expected value of 2.8% is in the very first play.
In order to answer the last question in full:
What could these people from a faulty system, publish and even to pay for advertising to make attention?
These people are employed as an affiliate for the casinos, that is, they recruit new players and get a commission from the casino. The fact that the player will always lose, does not disturb,
because in most cases there is only a fixed amount at the time of first deposit (This is why they also advise a minimum of $ 50 or $ 75 for paid-for real money players give to the commission).
It also wins the casino, and therefore it is not interest to prevent such a thing.
to individual arguments:
"Online is not a dealer look at the monitor, so can not be prevented that the system is applied." This is unnecessary because the "system" does not work. Go either in a live casino and demonstratively put to Martingale, or ask them directly if your "system" is allowed, the dealer will smile, make you the best deal chair and hope that you have brought a lot of money and time on the trust system. monitor if the casinos did, they might as well at your home computer, finally sees the casino and the stakes and all you see and do.
"The system works only with selected casinos." This is rubbish. All casinos have an independently audited and constantly monitored RNG-Random Number Generator (RNG). Any abnormality would be detected and statistically corrected. Casinos use a lot of money on reliable and 100% random generators to have. These are not the weaknesses of a pseudo-random generator, but work with real random numbers generated from nuclear decay, thermal or cosmic noise or other appropriate sources.
The real reason for this statement is that these people are an affiliate, of course, not all casinos and would get nothing if the player logs on to another casino.
This applies even if you do not use the link provided, because without the casino the player can not associate with the affiliate.
"But you can test the system yet in play money mode!" It is unlikely quickly to determine that the system does not work, because a small gain occurs frequently, as a great loss. In addition, play money tables usually have higher table limits and plays of players with more capital. Most believers are not stupid anyway long at the table mine, and after ten rounds can recognize that the system works reside. Who played hundreds of games, there will also lose everything.
quote Wikipedia:
"Especially in the fact that a Martingale player will score relatively frequent small wins and wait for the surely, from total loss for a long time must be the explanation for the phenomenon of the proverbial beginner's luck."
Other systems work, of course, just as much, namely:
Montante Montante Américaine Hollandaise Progression d’Alembert Fitzroy-System Parolispiel Marsch / Permanenzen Zwei-Drittel-Gesetz Auch wenn man andere Systeme findet, oder sich welche ausdenkt sollte man immer Einstein im Hinterkopf behalten. Dieser hatte sich auch mit Roulette beschäftigt und kam zu dem Schluss:
"Man kann beim Roulette nur gewinnen, wenn man die Jetons klaut, während der Croupier wegsieht."
Um es auf den Punkt zu bringen:
Kein Roulette System funktioniert! Fazit
Geld gibt es nie umsonst. Auch im Internet muss man for money work, sometimes, other than it runs a fraudulent site or an online casino. And for roulette, there is no functioning system, and will also never give up. Additional Information:
wizardofodds.com A few examples of these fraudulent sites:
http://www.schlau-geld-verdienen.com
http://geld-verdienen-einfach.info
http://www . online-roulette-gewinnen.com
http://www.im-moment.info/wohlstandgeldsystem.htm
http://www.100eurojedestunde.com
http://schnellgeldverdienen.net http://www.schlauheit2010 . com
http://www.adlermethode.net
http://www.roulette-trick.eu
http://www.geldgeheimnis.com
http://geldplansystem.com
http://www.onlinecashmethod.com
http://www.relaxedroulette.com
http://www.123cashforyou.com
http://geldpoli.webs.com
http : / / webmaster-
http://www.revolutionarymoneysystem.com/10498521/
gibs report.org The same with the stock exchange (Forex) and eBooks, and of course the good old pyramid schemes, all of the same swamp.
eg
http://www.derreichesack.com
http://www.geldverdieneniminternet24.com (thanks to the spambot hitnerlassen of NEN comment added.)
information pages:
http://www. manusblog.de http://abzocknews.blogspot.com helpful and the free Firefox Web of Trust WOT addon
is so you can see quickly what one has to think of a page.
PS: you can not compare with the like roulette and games such as poker, the game really involve skill. Those who do not recognize the difference helps turn the head and only Google.
The whole thing is illegal. Not necessarily for the player, but for the operators of such sites (the fraudulent sites, not the casinos) are currently countless lawyers sharpen their teeth, because these sites have one thing in common: they failed against the information requirements, they are applying (illegal) gambling, and it is an immoral transactions by: § 138 BGB. So no one should get the idea is also such a page to tinker and strong for grabs. What to do about it: whenever you see an ad on Google, etc. from these, just click once, advertising is expensive.
On one of these pages I have now read the statutory warning:
"The effectiveness of the system is not guaranteed in the long term, just like the logo" voted the best method 2010 "and the mathematical proof, which are neither purely fictitious. the website "Methode2010.com" nor the administrators or the People who leave comments, can the players be held responsible for profits or losses. " So both the great logo, and the mathematical proofs are fictitious, not surprisingly. Guaranteed and the system no long-term profit, I thought that is precisely the goal? Very interesting.
Who knows, other fraudulent sites, or would like to get rid of a comment / criticism is welcome to comment.
